Winter Wheat Conditions in the U.S.: A State-by-State Analysis

As of the latest Crop Progress report, 39% of winter wheat in the United States has headed. This article examines the current conditions of winter wheat across the top 18 growing states.

National Overview

Winter wheat conditions reported nationally reveal that:

• 6% rated as very poor
• 12% rated as poor
• 31% rated as fair
• 44% rated as good
• 7% rated as excellent

Nebraska

Nebraska is facing significant challenges, with the most severe winter wheat conditions in the country. According to the May 5 report, over 20% of the wheat crop is rated very poor, with 37% categorized as poor or very poor. Almost 98% of the state is experiencing drought, as noted by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Farmers in Nebraska are projected to harvest 970,000 acres of winter wheat this year, according to the USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report.

Texas

Texas reports that 30% of its winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition, with only 5% deemed excellent. The USDA’s report predicts that farmers will harvest 5.5 million acres of winter wheat this year.

South Dakota

In South Dakota, over a third of the winter wheat crop is in poor or very poor condition. The state reports 100% dryness or drought, and farmers are expected to harvest 800,000 acres of wheat this year.

Kansas

Kansas, the leading state in winter wheat production, has nearly half of its crop rated as good or excellent, but around 20% is reported as poor or very poor. The USDA forecasts 7.3 million acres of wheat to be harvested this year in Kansas.

Colorado

In Colorado, the USDA has rated 30% of winter wheat as fair and 17% as poor or very poor. Harvest predictions indicate that farmers will cultivate 2.1 million acres of wheat this year.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma’s winter wheat is rated with over one-third in fair condition, while less than half is classified as good or excellent. The forecast shows 4.15 million acres of wheat expected for harvest.

Regional Highlights

• Washington: 78% of winter wheat is in good or excellent condition, with 12% very poor or poor.
• Oregon: Nearly half the winter wheat is good, with 17% rated excellent.
• Indiana: Nearly 70% of its winter wheat is in good/excellent condition, with 25% in fair condition.
• Montana: Almost 80% rated good or excellent, while only 5% is poor.
• North Carolina: 75% of the crop is in good or excellent condition; 5% rated very poor.

Final Thoughts

The outlook for winter wheat across the U.S. varies significantly by state, with some regions facing severe challenges due to drought and adverse conditions. As we move deeper into the growing season, these conditions will have important implications for production and food supply.

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