Australian Beef Production Outlook for 2025

Australian beef production in 2025 is anticipated to approach the record levels achieved in 2024, according to Rabobank’s newly-released Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2025.

The report from Rabobank’s RaboResearch division indicates that increasing global demand will parallel these high production volumes, aiming to sustain stable prices and beneficial returns for Australian beef producers.

Favorable Conditions Supporting Production

Angus Gidley-Baird, senior animal proteins analyst at RaboResearch, noted that favorable climatic conditions, excluding prolonged dry spells in parts of Victoria and southeast South Australia, have supported a growth in Australian cattle numbers.

“The rise in calving from this expanded cattle inventory is now entering the market as finished cattle, achieving a record production level of 2.57 million tonnes in 2024,” stated Mr. Gidley-Baird.

Predicted Stability in Prices

RaboResearch is optimistic that 2025 will see continued high numbers of cattle available for sale, with elevated carcase weights projected to keep production volumes nearly matching the 2024 peak. Notably, significant production declines in other major beef-exporting countries are expected, which will create import demand and lessen competition for Australian beef.

Mr. Gidley-Baird explained, “This environment is likely to keep Australian cattle prices relatively stable throughout 2025, with some potential for price increases.”

However, uncertainties surrounding trade, influenced by tariffs and geopolitical tensions, could disrupt market stability, he cautioned.

Domestic Consumption Trends

While Australia’s domestic beef consumption per capita is forecasted to experience a slight decline in 2025 due to ongoing economic pressures, increased household incomes, as projected by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), might counterbalance this trend.

Despite a population growth of approximately two percent, a reduction in per capita consumption is expected, thereby sustaining overall domestic beef consumption levels. Exports are crucial, covering about 75 percent of production.

Global Market Dynamics

Globally, beef production is forecasted to increase slightly in the first quarter of 2025 but is anticipated to decline by two percent overall by year-end, primarily due to contractions in Brazil, the US, and China.

“These contractions among leading beef-exporting countries will bolster the Australian cattle market, particularly as the nation averts competition in shared export markets like Japan and South Korea,” Mr. Gidley-Baird remarked.

Cattle Price Outlook

RaboResearch predicts steady Australian cattle prices in 2025, potentially showing some upward movement due to strong global beef demand despite an overall competitive market.

The National Young Cattle Indicator is projected to range between 360c/kg and 425c/kg in live weight, averaging about 409c/kg throughout the year—a 23 percent increase from 2024 averages.

Implications for Profitability

With a larger inventory of cattle and favorable prices, Australian cattle producers are likely to see increased cash receipts in 2025, resulting in enhanced farm cash income. While production costs are also expected to rise due to ongoing trends, the overall revenue growth should balance these expenses.

Furthermore, results from the Q1 Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey indicate that beef producers remain optimistic, forecasting stable income levels over the next 12 months.

Source: Rabobank