2025 U.S. Turkey Production Faces Significant Declines
The U.S. turkey sector saw a substantial contraction in production during 2025, processing nearly 191 million birds—a decrease of 3.7% compared to the previous year, as reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Challenging Conditions for Producers
The year began under challenging circumstances for turkey producers. In the first half of 2025, despite historically low supply levels, demand for turkey products remained sluggish. Production during this period was about 2.33 billion pounds, representing a 9.7% decline from the same timeframe in 2024, according to data from the USDA Economic Research Service. Producers also contended with ongoing health issues within their flocks, notably the impacts of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and Avian metapneumovirus, which further disrupted production and overall output.
Market Dynamics Shift Mid-Year
As 2025 progressed, market conditions began to alter significantly. By the latter half of the year, decreasing supply contributed to rising prices. Wholesale turkey values surged beyond typical seasonal trends, with frozen hens exceeding $1.50 per pound and briefly reaching $1.60. In September, fresh tom breast meat hit an all-time high of $6.71 per pound. By October, average wholesale prices had experienced a 75% increase relative to the same month in 2024, climbing to $1.71 per pound. Improved pricing across various turkey products, coupled with lowered feed costs, ultimately enhanced producer margins.
Industry Structural Changes
Structural changes within the turkey industry also exacerbated supply constraints. Several significant processing plants either scaled back operations or ceased entirely throughout 2025. Notably, Foster Farms closed its turkey slaughter facility in Turlock, California, which was later acquired by Diestel Family Ranch for further processing. Perdue Farms reduced its operations at its Indiana location, while both Butterball and Cargill closed plants in Arkansas. These closures contributed to the overall decline in slaughter volumes and are anticipated to affect production well into 2026.
Disease Pressures and Supply Constraints
Throughout the year, disease pressures remained a crucial concern. Late summer saw an escalation in cases of HPAI, leading to the elimination of approximately 370,000 turkeys in a short timeframe. Over the year, more than 3.8 million commercial turkeys were culled due to outbreaks, as reported by the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. Additionally, avian metapneumovirus continued to adversely affect breeder flocks, reducing hatchability and thus limiting future production capacity. The full impact of AMPV remains uncertain, as it is not officially monitored, yet its influence has been felt across production cycles.
Outlook for 2026
As a result of these compounded challenges, supply levels in the turkey market reached historical lows. Per capita availability of turkey plummeted by approximately 8% through mid-2025 compared to the prior year, with expectations for this trend to continue into the year’s end. As demand surged—especially for whole birds and breast meat—prices continued to rise across the board.
Looking ahead to 2026, the turkey industry is expected to find itself in a stronger financial position than a year prior, despite ongoing challenges. High prices, constrained supply, and the lingering effects of disease as well as earlier production losses have created a transitional phase for producers. Turkey production for 2026 is projected to reach around 4.98 billion pounds, although supply levels are anticipated to remain below historical averages—particularly in the early months of the year.
