Recent surveys reveal that Polish poultry farmers are set to face severe financial challenges following the EU-Mercosur agreement. An average large farm is projected to lose approximately PLN 130,000 (€31,000) annually, putting many at significant risk of closure.
Economic Impact on Poultry Farms
The agreement is estimated to cause a perilous decline in profit margins; producers are experiencing a drop from PLN 0.52 (€0.12) per kilogram to PLN 0.26 (€0.06). This reduction essentially halves the industry’s net profit over the coming years.
Irreversible Damage to Family Farms
Analysts predict that the influx of poultry imports from Latin America will have a devastating impact on family-run farms. Specifically, those operating on 10-50 hectares may see income reductions ranging from 20-40% by 2030. This economic contraction is expected to lead to a wave of consolidation, resulting in the disappearance of many medium-sized enterprises.
“Polish farmers are entering this period in a state of vulnerability, exacerbated by declining grain prices, rising energy costs, and strict regulations under the European Green Deal,” the analysts cautioned.
Financial Blow to Exports
The implications for poultry exports are stark—sales are projected to fall by €225 million annually, decreasing to approximately €540 million. This downturn threatens the livelihoods of 15,000 to 30,000 jobs within the industry.
Other agricultural sectors will also experience declines. For instance, beef exports could fall by €160 million to around €300 million annually, endangering another 15,000 jobs. Dairy exports are likewise anticipated to dip by nearly one-third to €166 million.
Overall, losses across Poland’s agricultural sector as a result of the EU-Mercosur agreement are estimated to range between €500 million and €1.06 billion annually, according to calculations by Polskie Radio.
A Complex Economic Landscape
While the agriculture sector faces significant setbacks, analysts suggest that other areas of the economy, such as automotive, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, may offset these losses. It’s estimated that Poland could potentially gain up to €2 billion annually from the agreement, despite the toll it takes on farmers.
A Battle of Agricultural Models
Yet, this silver lining offers little comfort to the struggling farmers. They are bracing for an uneven playing field as they compete against Brazilian landowners who utilize genetically modified organisms (GMO) and neonicotinoids to lower production costs. “This isn’t a battle of quality, but rather a brutal confrontation between fundamentally different agricultural production models,” analysts remarked.
