Australian Beef Industry Poised for Record Production in 2026

The Australian beef industry is on track to achieve another year of record production in 2026, as highlighted in Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) annual Cattle Industry Projections released today. The report estimates a slaughter of 9.45 million head, marking the highest figures since 1978.

This estimate slightly surpasses last year’s numbers, which already saw record annual beef export volumes. It’s important to note that while the report accounts for recent rainfall in North and Central Australia, it was finalized shortly after the start of the Iran Conflict on February 28, leaving some crucial supply and demand dynamics potentially unaddressed.

Impact of Global Events

Any influence from the conflict in the Middle East is expected to manifest primarily on the demand side, potentially affecting consumers’ disposable incomes through increased fuel costs. Furthermore, higher fertilizer prices might disrupt supply chain functions, particularly for beef processors in Victoria and southern NSW who source cattle from Queensland for processing.

Strong Producer Position

Despite these challenges, MLA’s market information manager, Stephen Bignell, emphasizes that producers are stepping into 2026 from a position of strength. “Our forecast indicates 9.45 million head of cattle will be processed in 2026, reflecting robust global demand and favorable production conditions across much of northern Australia,” Bignell stated.

National Herd and Carcase Weights

The national herd is expected to remain above 30 million head, with a slight decrease to 30.78 million due to increased slaughter rates offset by recent rains enhancing growing conditions. By 2028, a projected decline of approximately 6% is expected as the ramifications of sustained high turnoffs are felt.

Average carcase weights are anticipated to stabilize around 307.5kg, influenced by a larger proportion of grassfed cattle due to favorable seasonal conditions. In contrast, carcase weights peaked at 320kg around 2022 during the drought recovery.

Production and Slaughter Outlook

MLA’s latest forecast predicts record beef production of 2.906 million tonnes carcase weight in 2026, driven by high slaughter numbers and favorable seasonal circumstances in Queensland and the Northern Territory.

“This production outlook demonstrates the resilience of the industry. Despite slightly lighter carcase weights due to a higher projected grassfed slaughter, we’re well-positioned for another record year in beef production,” Bignell remarked. This would surpass the previous record of nearly 2.8 million tonnes set in 2025, resulting in a 4% year-on-year increase.

Flood Impact and Pasture Growth

Recent flooding in northern Australia also influences the outlook, although the net effect on the herd is expected to be beneficial. While some livestock losses may occur, they appear smaller compared to those experienced in 2019. The resultant improved pasture growth and feed availability should outweigh any immediate livestock losses.

Exports and Global Demand Dynamics

Australian beef exports are anticipated to hit a record 2.3 million tonnes carcase weight in 2026, bolstered by increased production and tight global supply. The United States’ reduced domestic supply continues to sustain demand for lean, grassfed beef from Australia.

“It’s essential to note that these projections were created before the Middle Eastern conflict,” Bignell clarified. “However, Australia’s beef markets are diversified, maintaining substantial global demand.”

Future Considerations

Analyst forecasts suggest a stable price outlook for the remainder of FY2026, with expected rises in the National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) by 3% by June 30, paired with modest shifts in feeder steer and heavy steer indicators.

“The herd should remain above 30 million head this year, a positive sign. However, by 2028, we anticipate a 6% decline as the consequences of consecutive high turnoff years become more pronounced,” Bignell stated.

Focus on Productivity Gains

Productivity enhancements will be vital to the industry’s future outlook. Continuous improvements in genetics, herd management practices, and feeding systems are expected to support beef production, even as slaughter rates begin to decline.

“In 2026, strong international demand coupled with high processing capacity will drive record production levels,” Bignell concluded. Monitoring domestic supply chain disruptions and international trade conditions will be essential in the coming years.

For the complete MLA 2026 Cattle Industry Projections report, click here.

Source: MLA