Understanding the Current State of Agriculture: Insights and Strategies for 2026

What Happened

The year is swiftly coming to a close, prompting a shift in focus to the agricultural landscape of 2026. Presently, grain and oilseed supplies are deemed to be adequate, resulting in prices that remain largely stable, if not weaker. A combination of strong genetics, effective farming practices, and generally favorable weather conditions has led to record crop yields globally. However, for both producers and end users, the need for a balanced approach as we look ahead is essential. Weather, a critical determinant of crop production, remains unpredictable, impacting market perceptions of global supplies and price fluctuations.

Why This Is Important

Marketing in agriculture is a constant endeavor. While it’s easy to assume a continuation of excellent crop yields, numerous variables can rapidly alter this outlook. Currently, market trends indicate that prices will predominantly stay within a range. However, unexpected events could trigger significant shifts in crop production, which may lead to either notable price declines or rallies.

Looking ahead, two potential scenarios are likely: either crop production aligns with expectations, keeping prices stable, or unforeseen factors create substantial deviations in yields, driving prices either down or up. As we approach the end of the year, preparing for these possibilities is vital for effective strategy execution. This involves mapping out potential future scenarios and determining action plans in advance.

Farmers should plan for average production. If not, partaking in agriculture may not be feasible. It is advisable to explore selling strategies for both the 2025 harvest and the upcoming 2026 crops during price increases. Delaying sales could result in financial losses by late summer, particularly if crops in the Northern Hemisphere are abundant. At that stage, securing a substantial price could become challenging, as markets may be searching for a bottom. To mitigate risks, consider covering sales with options to accommodate adverse weather scenarios that could escalate prices.

While buyers have benefited from low prices in recent years, it would be unwise to assume this trend will persist into the new growing season. Buyers should consistently evaluate price fluctuations and consider risk management strategies like forward contracts, call options, or futures to navigate potential volatility.

What Can You Do?

Engaging in informed discussions with knowledgeable professionals is crucial for sound decision-making. Maintain a balanced marketing approach by utilizing appropriate tools that help minimize risk while capitalizing on opportunities. Given the historical trends of sufficient crop production, it is reasonable to allocate resources to cover anticipated needs. However, proactive marketing is rooted in meticulous planning that anticipates various outcomes.

Find What Works for You

Work closely with professionals to tailor strategies that are best suited to your agricultural operations. Effective communication is key; ask critical questions to ensure you understand the potential consequences and rewards of your choices. The goal is to make well-informed, rational decisions rather than reactive responses to ever-changing market conditions.

Editor’s Note: If you have any questions regarding this perspective, feel free to contact Bryan Doherty at Total Farm Marketing: (800) 334-9779.

Disclaimer: The data presented is based on reliable sources but is not guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their actions. Commodity trading involves significant risks and may not be suitable for everyone. Always carefully evaluate whether such trading aligns with your financial situation.

About the Author: With 30 years of experience at Total Farm Marketing and a substantial following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is dedicated to helping clients achieve success and fostering lasting relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of brokerage solutions, he possesses deep insights into farm marketing, ensuring that clients are equipped to make informed decisions confidently.