USDA Releases Key Reports: Crop Production, WASDE, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings

Today, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released four significant reports: the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Crop Production 2025 Summary, quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings reports. Let’s delve into the details of each document.

Crop Production 2025 Summary

The Crop Production 2025 Summary indicates an increase in corn yield and overall production, surpassing trade expectations. In contrast, soybean yield and production remained mostly unchanged yet held a slight upward adjustment compared to market predictions.

WASDE Report Overview

2025/2026 U.S. Ending Stocks

In the WASDE report, the USDA projected an increase in the 2025/2026 U.S. ending stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat, exceeding expectations from market analysts.

2025/2026 Global Ending Stocks

Globally, the USDA reported a month-over-month increase in ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat, reiterating a bullish outlook for these commodities.

Crop Production in Brazil and Argentina

For major South American producers, the USDA’s estimates for corn and soybean production in Argentina and Brazil fell below trade expectations, with production figures remaining largely unchanged.

Grain Stocks Summary

In the quarterly Grain Stocks report, the USDA reported higher year-over-year totals for corn, soybean, and wheat grain stocks across all positions, exceeding analyst forecasts.

Winter Wheat Seedings Update

The Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report revealed that USDA estimated a slight decrease in 2026 winter wheat planted acres compared to the previous year, yet this figure surpassed market predictions.

Market Reactions

Nick Tsiolis, Founder & CEO of Farmer’s Keeper: “What a shocker. USDA is clearly not on the same page as the farmer or the analyst. This cements what is the largest corn crop in U.S. History. All eyes must turn to the 2026 acreage battle.” He noted that the figures would negatively influence old crop sales, emphasizing the need for farmer sales due to weakening futures levels.

Jamey Kohake, Senior Risk Manager with Pinion: “The surprises in today’s report came from raised corn yields and unchanged beans, alongside raised carryout and quarterly stocks. With record corn exports this year, we are now facing significant fund liquidation.” He highlighted the importance of maintaining key price levels going forward.

Angie Setzer, Partner at Consus Ag Consulting: “There seems to be no bullish input in sight, which is less than ideal for those hoping for a market rally. The focus will shift to the upcoming crop as this year’s supply comes under scrutiny.” She emphasized the market’s unfavorable reaction, with concerns over the supply pipeline.

Editor’s Note: Trade expectations referenced are sourced from Reuters.

This article is structured for easy reading, integrating important financial details and expert opinions in a clear format suitable for online publishing.