– Shipping disruptions in the Middle East have significantly reduced the flow of essential energy and fertilizer supplies to Asia, threatening the region’s agricultural productivity.

– Rising input costs of 50 to 80 percent, combined with stagnant output prices, are forcing many Asian farmers to reconsider their planting decisions.

– Major buyers in the Gulf have drastically reduced imports of Asian rice, meat, and dairy, leading to weakened demand for Asian agricultural exports.

Shipping Disruptions and Agricultural Challenges

Recent shipping disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have caused a significant decrease in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for energy and fertilizer supplies. This strain has had a profound impact on Asia’s agricultural cycle, according to Máximo Torero Cullen, chief economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

“Gulf economies are among the largest buyers of Asian rice, meat, and dairy, and their cutbacks in imports are a double blow,” stated Torero in a recent op-ed published during the 38th Session of the FAO Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific (APRC 38) held from April 20 to 24 in Brunei Darussalam. “Asian farmers are losing both the inputs they depend on and the markets they serve.”

Farmers Facing Tough Decisions

Vietnam, the world’s second-largest rice exporter, has begun cutting production due to rising energy costs. Other countries like Thailand and Bangladesh are experiencing similar pressures. Farmers across Asia now face a dire situation where input costs have soared by 50 to 80 percent, yet output prices remain stagnant. Many farmers are struggling to break even.

In response, farming practices are changing, leading to a potential decrease in food supply. “Farmers may reduce application rates and accept lower yields, or shift towards crops requiring fewer inputs,” warned Torero. Additionally, high energy prices are driving some to expand biofuel production, which diverts land away from food crops.

Decisions made now will affect future harvests. “The reality is that actions taken during the 2026 planting season will determine the 2027 harvest,” Torero cautioned.

The Ripple Effect of Remittances

The crisis is also impacting farm households indirectly via falling remittances from workers in the Gulf. These remittances significantly contribute to GDP in countries like Nepal (8%), Pakistan (5.6%), Bangladesh (2.8%), and the Philippines (2.5%). A slowdown in Gulf economies reduces these earnings, further complicating the financial landscape for farmers.

“With less remittance income, farmers will plant less, consequently decreasing food availability,” Torero explained.

Call for Urgent Action

According to Torero, the challenges faced by Asia’s agricultural sector are unprecedented. Unlike the situation caused by the Ukraine War, the Middle East conflict presents an ‘upstream input shock’ coupled with a demand collapse.

“There is no alternative supplier for the fertilizers and energy needed at the scales required, and Gulf buyers of Asian food cannot simply be replaced,” he warned.

He urges that immediate action be taken: “Governments should carefully regulate biofuel mandates to revert land back to food production. International financial institutions and donor governments must move quickly to provide access to fertilizer before critical planting windows close.”

“These farmers are caught in a tightening vice. They have no reserves and no means to absorb rising input costs without direct support. The time for intervention is now, and it must be executed swiftly,” Torero concluded.