The Future of Aquaculture in 2025: Growth and Challenges Ahead
The global aquaculture sector is set for a promising first half of 2025, according to a recent report by RaboResearch. Despite facing uncertainties, the industry is expected to see growth, with the salmon and shrimp markets leading the way.
Main Drivers for Demand
In Western countries, inflation easing could boost demand for seafood. However, the recent US presidential win by Trump may lead to trade war-induced inflation, affecting disposable incomes and shifting demand towards more affordable proteins like chicken. In China, economic uncertainty and the need for fiscal support may hinder demand recovery for aquaculture products. Additionally, fish meal prices are expected to face downward pressure as they adjust to lower feed alternative prices.
Salmon Industry Outlook
After a challenging 2024, the global salmon industry is expected to see mild recovery in 2025. Growth of 1-2% is anticipated, with Norway better prepared for biological challenges and Chile expected to avoid El Niño-related issues. Tight supply and improving demand are likely to keep salmon prices supported, although not reaching the peaks of early 2024.
Shrimp Market Forecast
Shrimp prices are on a path to recovery, with supply adjustments leading to a more balanced market. While uncertainties remain, factors like declining feed costs and Western market demand growth provide a positive outlook for the first half of 2025. However, Chinese demand uncertainty and potential US tariffs pose risks to the market.
Fish Meal Price Trends
Fish meal prices are expected to face downward pressure as they align with lower feed alternative prices. Increased supply from Peru and ample vegetable alternatives have led to a correction in fish meal prices. The current fishing season in Peru is expected to deliver strong supply growth early in 2025, further exerting pressure on prices.
Overall, the aquaculture sector is poised for growth in 2025, with the salmon and shrimp markets leading the way. While challenges and uncertainties remain, the industry is adapting to changing conditions and market dynamics to ensure continued success.
