March Quarter Update: Australian Beef Producers’ Retail Share Improves
The Australian beef producers’ share of the retail dollar spend on beef has seen a slight uptick over the past three months. Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) allows a comprehensive update on the quarterly producer share of retail dollar calculations, an initiative co-published by Episode3 and Beef Central.
Current Market Trends
In the first quarter of 2025, there was a modest improvement in saleyard prices for Australian cattle and lamb producers. Despite diverse retail trends and cost dynamics, the producer’s share of the retail dollar faced mixed outcomes.
Specifically for cattle, saleyard prices rose from 669 cents/kg cwt in Q4 2024 to 703 cents/kg in Q1 2025, following a gradual recovery since mid-2024. Meanwhile, retail beef prices also increased, from an average of $25.97/kg to $26.36/kg in the latest quarter. This synchronized movement resulted in the producer’s share of the retail beef value rising from 37.5% to 38.8%.
This increase marks a partial recovery from a significant low of 25.8% recorded back in December 2023. This drop was partly attributed to adverse weather forecasts and looming concerns over potential Lumpy Skin Disease in Australia.
Comparative Price Indices
The saleyard cattle price index climbed from 383 to 402 during the March quarter, reflecting stronger returns to producers. In comparison, the retail cattle index also moved up from 264 to 268, maintaining an upward trajectory.
Challenges for Lamb Producers
In contrast, lamb producers have seen a decline in their retail share. The saleyard price decreased from 826 cents/kg cwt in December to 784 cents/kg, whereas retail lamb prices rose from an average of $19.06/kg to $19.27/kg. Consequently, the producer share of retail lamb value dropped from 61.9% to 58.1%. This indicates that while retail prices are rising, they are not sufficiently translating back to farmgate returns.
Background of Retail Price Calculation
In collaboration with analyst Matt Dalgleish from Episode 3, Beef Central resumed a quarterly series in 2023 that focuses on trends in the beef producer’s share of retail consumer spending. This series was initially launched by the MLA but discontinued in 2016 due to varying interests. Recognizing the ongoing demand for this data, Beef Central sought MLA’s support to revitalize the series.
Calculation Methodology
The calculation of the beef producer share of the retail dollar involves several key assumptions:
- The national saleyard trade steer indicator serves as the benchmark for livestock prices, representing animals suited for the domestic market.
- Carcase weight prices are converted to an estimated retail weight equivalent using a retail meat yield of 68.7%.
- Indicative retail meat prices are indexed based on actual average beef prices each quarter, utilizing meat sub-group indices from the ABS.
Ultimately, the producer share is derived by dividing the estimated retail weight equivalent livestock price by the indicative retail price, offering a transparent view of the industry trends.
Further Reading
Click the links below for earlier reports in this ongoing series:
