Surging Bird Flu Cases and Turkey Prices Amid Holiday Season

By Ryan Hanrahan

As the holiday season approaches, the U.S. is grappling with a significant resurgence of bird flu, impacting both commercial and backyard poultry. Recent reports indicate that over 8.9 million turkeys, chickens, and ducks have been lost to the outbreak since September.

Fortunately for consumers, the American Farm Bureau conducted a nationwide survey revealing that retail prices for frozen turkeys are down by 16% compared to last year. This price reduction contrasts sharply with wholesale prices, which have surged by 40% due to the bird flu’s impact on supply. Retailers have resorted to selling turkeys at a loss to attract customers, and safety remains assured as long as turkeys are cooked properly.

Concern Over Evolving Virus Strains

Despite the manageable retail prices, infectious disease researchers express growing concern over the rapid evolution of the bird flu virus, specifically the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain known as H5N1. This strain has been circulating globally since the early 2000s but has notably intensified within U.S. commercial poultry flocks since early 2022.

As noted by Feedstuffs, the USDA’s Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported that outbreaks have occurred in 90 poultry flocks recently, affecting a staggering 1.6 million birds in just the last month alone. Since the outbreak began in February 2022, nearly 184 million birds have been infected nationwide, with Indiana currently experiencing the highest number of cases.

Retail Prices Remain Stable

Despite the spike in wholesale turkey prices, NBC News reports that these increases are not translating to consumers, as advertised turkey prices remain stable compared to the previous year. Grocery stores seem willing to absorb the rising costs to maintain customer interest, leading to steady prices for Thanksgiving meals.

Experts attribute the fluctuating turkey prices to reduced supply, with bird flu outbreaks contributing significantly to the culling of over 2 million turkeys this year alone. Furthermore, avian metapneumovirus is compounding the issue by affecting the viability of eggs, thus making it challenging for farmers to replenish their flocks. The USDA now forecasts a drop in turkey production to 4.8 million pounds for the year, down from 5.1 million pounds in 2024.

Public Health Concerns: H5N5 Strain Case

The situation took a more alarming turn as a Washington State resident passed away after being treated for the H5N5 avian influenza. This marks the first confirmed human case of this variant globally. The individual, from Grays Harbor County, had underlying health conditions and owned a mixed flock of domestic birds.

The state’s health department has stated that the risk to the general public remains low. No other individuals connected to the case have tested positive for avian influenza.

As the holiday season unfolds, the agriculture community and consumers alike are on high alert, balancing the realities of bird flu outbreaks with the assurance of safety when preparing traditional meals.

Originally published by Farmdoc.