Recent surveys by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) indicate that U.S. corn farmers are feeling a mix of confidence and concern regarding fertilizer prices and availability for the upcoming planting seasons. Over 600 farmers participated in the surveys conducted from March 27 to April 3.

The findings reveal that more than 70% of farmers have already secured 80% of their phosphate fertilizer for 2026, while two-thirds have purchased the same percentage of nitrogen fertilizer. Conversely, 11% and 9% of farmers, respectively, have yet to make any fertilizer purchases for the upcoming season.

However, opinions are divided on the application of fertilizer this year. Half of the surveyed farmers indicated they would proceed with a full application, while the other half expressed plans to apply only a partial amount. Economic challenges are apparent, as 37% of those opting for reduced applications cited price concerns, 11% indicated availability issues, and 2% mentioned drought conditions affecting their decisions.

Looking further ahead, around 60% of the surveyed farmers are more apprehensive about fertilizer prices and availability in 2027, compared to only a third who are focusing on the challenges facing this year’s harvest. This survey involved responses from 1,000 farmers across the nation.

As of early April, nine of the 18 states that cultivate corn have commenced planting this year’s crop, a trend that is ahead of last year’s pace according to the USDA’s Crop Progress report for April 6. Texas leads with 59% of its crop planted, followed closely by Tennessee with 18%, compared to 58% and 3% at the same time last year, respectively.

Global Conflicts and Their Impact on Fertilizer Markets

The current unrest, particularly the conflict involving Iran, poses further complexities for the fertilizer market. The ongoing war has disrupted cargo traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz, creating substantial supply chain challenges. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a ceasefire initiated with Pakistan’s assistance, hinge on reopening this vital trade passage.

The NCGA highlights other contributing factors to rising fertilizer costs. Key suppliers like Mosaic Corporation and J.R. Simplot are advocating for countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers, exacerbating price pressures as shipments from Morocco to the U.S. are halted.

Jed Bower, NCGA president and an Ohio farmer, commented on the situation, stating, “Fertilizer prices were high even before the war in Iran began. Added market stress due to the Strait of Hormuz closure has only intensified an already difficult situation, particularly as we look towards 2027.”

Even if the conflict in Iran were to settle, experts like Stephen Nicholson, head of crop at Rabobank, anticipate lingering effects on fertilizer and agricultural chemical prices. “The longer the conflict persists, the greater the damage to infrastructure and dwindling supplies of energy and chemicals, all contributing to heightened prices. Moreover, the impact will not vanish overnight even after the conflict ends; the agricultural infrastructure developed over years will require significant time to recover,” he noted.