Global Beef Market Trends Under President Trump’s Administration

In the first half of 2025, global cattle markets have seen significant upward trends. However, the onset of President Trump’s administration in January has brought about uncertainty and unpredictability within the global beef market.

The RaboResearch division highlights that as beef remains one of the most critical agricultural commodities traded by the United States, any adjustments to U.S. trading agreements can have far-reaching implications worldwide, as detailed in their Q2 2025 Global Beef Quarterly Report.

Current Trade Dynamics

Despite anticipations of stable trade flows as we move into June, concerns loom over potential trade conflicts involving major blocs such as Europe and China. The ramifications of any such trade war could drastically impact market conditions.

Supply Struggles

Global cattle prices have experienced a notable surge in the first six months, particularly in Europe, where domestic supplies have seen substantial contraction amid strong demand. This change has aligned European prices more closely with North American cattle prices, which have been gradually climbing.

Lead analyst Angus Gidley-Baird notes, “Disease and pest issues are pressing challenges for cattle supplies in both Europe and the U.S.”

Recent outbreaks such as the Bluetongue virus in Europe and the New World screwworm in Mexico have instigated U.S. border closures for cattle imports, further complicating supply avenues.

Anticipated Production Declines

Looking forward, global beef production is projected to contract by two percent throughout the year, predominantly affecting regions such as Brazil and New Zealand. Other markets, including parts of Europe, the U.S., and China, are also expected to face reductions. Interestingly, Australia remains one of the few regions where an increase in production is forecasted.

Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade

In April 2025, the U.S. imposed tariffs affecting numerous beef-exporting countries. As reciprocal tariffs remain on hold until early July, trade negotiations are ongoing; however, shifts are already being observed in global beef trade volumes. Reports indicate that Chinese importers are increasingly sourcing from Australia, New Zealand, and South America, as U.S. beef becomes less accessible.

Future Trade Optimism

Despite the uncertain landscape created by tariffs, RaboResearch expresses cautious optimism regarding the demand for beef and current trade flows. “Beef has not been singled out as a targeted commodity,” Gidley-Baird states, predicting that competitive positions will persist, albeit at higher costs.

However, escalations in the U.S.-China tariff conflict could seemingly alter this dynamic.

Focus on Australia

Australian beef production is expected to remain robust with steady cattle prices. The seasonal conditions will likely impact different regions variably, but the overall outlook appears positive.

Stable saleyard cattle prices have characterized the first half of the year, with the National Young Cattle Indicator remaining in a tight range. Widespread rainfall in Queensland, Australia’s largest cattle-producing region, has alleviated drought conditions, allowing producers to maintain or even slightly increase stock levels.

Challenges Ahead

Nonetheless, some producers in southern Australia face ongoing dry conditions, which may lead to increased cattle sale numbers as they prepare for the winter months.

“Producers are adapting to ensure the sustainability of their herds amid these changing conditions,” concludes Gidley-Baird.

Source: RaboBank