WASHINGTON, DC – USDA sharply lowered its 2026 corn production estimate while slightly increasing the soybean crop, delivering a more supportive corn outlook than traders expected in the November Crop Production report.
Corn production is now forecast at 15.893 billion bushels, down about 141 million bushels from October and 6 percent below last year. The national yield dropped 1.6 bushels from the previous forecast to 179.6 bushels per acre. Production remains the second highest on record.
Several major Corn Belt states drove the reduction. Illinois corn yield fell from 208 to 200 bushels per acre, Indiana dropped from 200 to 195, Nebraska from 188 to 184 and Missouri from 181 to 176. Minnesota provided a major offset, increasing from 195 to 204 bushels per acre, while Iowa remained at 219.
Soybean production moved the opposite direction. USDA raised production slightly to a record 4.574 billion bushels, up 7 percent from 2025. National yield increased from 53.1 to a record 53.3 bushels per acre. Even with the increase, production remained below pre-report trade expectations.
USDA also made significant reductions elsewhere. Sorghum production fell to 274 million bushels, down 37 percent from last year. Cotton production was reduced 2 percent from October to 13.2 million bales, while peanut production dropped to 4.93 billion pounds, 31 percent below 2025.
The report reinforces sharply different supply conditions across crops. Corn supplies tightened from October expectations, soybean production remains historically large, and several Southern and Plains crops continue showing substantial production losses.
Farm-Level Takeaway: USDA’s smaller corn estimate provides additional price support, while record soybean production and sharp declines in sorghum, cotton and peanuts create very different supply outlooks across major crops.
