Projected Agricultural Payments for 2025: A Comprehensive Overview

In March 2025, farmers made critical decisions regarding their enrollment in the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs. However, the recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July has resulted in farmers being eligible to receive the greater payment of either the PLC or ARC for the year. The total projected payments from these programs for 2025 are estimated to exceed $13.5 billion, with approximately $3.2 billion, or 24%, expected to come from farmers receiving the maximum payment instead of what they originally elected for the year. These figures are based on current price projections, which could fluctuate throughout the marketing year.

Projected Payments for 2025

A recent analysis has revealed the payment projections for seven key agricultural commodities that encompass the largest number of base acres. These estimates hinge on the marketing year average (MYA) prices for the 2025/26 season, which were derived from the USDA’s latest WASDE report and ARC/PLC program data supplied by the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and released on November 14, 2025.

The estimated per-acre payment rates for ARC-CO and PLC were calculated using simulation methods, which were detailed on the Policy Design Lab webpage. To consolidate the total payment estimates, county-level data on enrolled base acres from the FSA were aggregated to forecast the projected payment rates for each county.

Table 1 outlines the enrolled base acres by program for each crop, along with average projected payment rates for ARC-CO and PLC for the seven commodities with the largest base acre enrollment. It is noteworthy that enrollment differs significantly among these crops; the majority of corn (83%) and soybean (94%) base acres were enrolled in ARC-CO for 2025, while PLC enrollment dominates for long-grain rice (100%), peanuts (99%), and seed cotton (89%). Grain sorghum and wheat show a more balanced enrollment, with 49% and 57% in ARC-CO, respectively.

The payment rate estimates are expressed in dollars per base acre ($/ba) with adjustments for an 85% payment factor. Notably, projected payment rates from PLC generally exceed those of ARC-CO across all commodities. However, this does not suggest that every farm will benefit from PLC payments; variations exist among counties and farms. Some farms may find that ARC-CO payment rates outstrip those of PLC.

Additional ARC/PLC Payments Across U.S. Counties

Table 2 details total projected payments for major row crops, including ARC-CO and PLC payments based on enrollment decisions along with any additional projected payments. An additional payment is determined when the forecasted payment of the originally chosen program is lower than that of the alternative program.

With total ARC/PLC payments expected to surpass $13.5 billion, additional payments alone are projected to total around $3.2 billion, accounting for 24% of the overall projected support. For those heavily involved in PLC crops like rice, peanuts, and seed cotton, the additional payment values are comparatively minimal.

Fluctuations indicate significant additional payments for corn and soybean base acres, with projections nearing $1.6 billion and $1.2 billion respectively. The next highest additional support comes from wheat at approximately $1 billion.

Summary

Producers in 2025 will receive the larger of the payments from ARC-CO or PLC for their base acres. This decision stems from the late passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which influenced the enrollment decisions made prior to its ratification. Looking ahead, annual enrollment decisions will reopen starting in 2026.

The method of providing the more substantial payment for 2025 is anticipated to yield almost $3.2 billion in extra support, primarily benefiting corn, soybeans, wheat, and grain sorghum. However, the implications of low returns in major row crops since 2023 raise concerns over the timing and adequacy of these payments, which are not expected to reach farmers until well into 2026. As policymakers contemplate additional assistance for farmers, it’s crucial they gauge existing support mechanisms such as ARC and PLC.

Note that these estimates rely on the USDA’s current projections, and actual program payments will depend on real market conditions and finalized yields from FSA, which are still to be determined.

This article has been adapted from the original publication on Farmdoc.

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