Vietnam Surpasses U.S. in Seafood Exports to China Amid Declining American Demand
Surging Exports to China
Vietnam has witnessed a significant surge in seafood exports to China, surpassing the United States for the first time in April 2025. This major milestone has been attributed to a combination of shifting market strategies and tariffs impacting trade with the U.S.
Changes in Export Markets
In April, Vietnam’s seafood exports to the U.S. experienced a considerable decline, reflecting the ongoing repercussions of retaliatory tariffs. Once the dominant market for Vietnamese seafood, the U.S. has now slipped to third place, with China and Japan taking precedence.
Export Statistics
The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) reported that Vietnam’s seafood exports saw a remarkable rebound in the first four months of 2025, totaling USD 3.3 billion—a 21% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In April alone, exports reached USD 850.5 million, showing a 10% year-on-year rise.
China Becomes the Largest Importer
China (including Hong Kong) emerged as Vietnam’s leading seafood importer, with a staggering USD 709.8 million in imports during the first four months, reflecting a 56% increase from the previous year. This contrast is significant, as China was ranked second last year, following the U.S.
Growth in Other Markets
Japan followed China, with seafood imports from Vietnam amounting to USD 536.6 million, a 22% increase year-on-year. The European Union (EU) and South Korea also demonstrated promising growth, with exports to the EU soaring to USD 351.5 million (up 17%) and South Korea importing USD 264.1 million worth of Vietnamese seafood (up 15%).
Challenges in the U.S. Market
Despite a 7% overall increase in U.S. exports this year, reaching USD 498.4 million, April 2025 saw a sharp 15% decline in seafood exports to the U.S., bringing in only USD 120.5 million. This drop has been largely linked to the impact of the ongoing retaliatory tariffs, disrupting operations for Vietnamese exporters.
Impact of Tariffs
Key exports, particularly pangasius and shrimp, which heavily rely on the U.S. market, are facing significant challenges. The tariffs have inflated product costs, driving American importers to seek alternatives from competitors such as India or Ecuador. Furthermore, stringent food safety inspections and traceability requirements have diminished Vietnam’s competitiveness in the U.S. market.
Shifting Strategies and Future Prospects
Nevertheless, Vietnam is leveraging other free trade agreements (FTAs) to minimize damage. Companies are increasingly focusing on high-value-added products and market diversification to reduce dependency on the U.S.
Profit Targets and Market Exit Considerations
During an annual shareholders’ meeting in April 2025, Ho Quoc Luc, Chairman of Sao Ta Foods JSC, indicated that if Vietnam faced a 46% tariff while others faced only 20%, the company might contemplate a withdrawal from the U.S. market. Sao Ta has already exported over USD 46 million to the U.S. in Q1 2025, with plans to capitalize on a 90-day tariff delay.
Similarly, Vinh Hoan Corporation, a major pangasius exporter, is also monitoring the impact of retaliatory duties on its profitability and plans to maximize export opportunities during the tariff delay.
Outlook for May and June 2025
According to VASEP, a significant shift in seafood exports is anticipated in May and June 2025, as exporters seek to boost shipments to the U.S. before the new tariff policy takes effect in July. Exports to the U.S. could rise by 10-15%, driven by expedited contracts. Conversely, competition from redirected Chinese seafood may stall growth in other markets like China and ASEAN, with minimal increases expected.
Conclusion
The seafood export landscape for Vietnam is evolving rapidly, with China emerging as a vital market. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs pose ongoing challenges, pushing exporters to adapt and explore new avenues for growth.
