Midwest Weather Patterns: Fluctuating Temperatures and Storm Alerts

As warmer weather makes its presence felt across the Midwest, February is seeing above-average temperatures. However, residents can expect a shift as another cold front approaches later this week.

A Brief Warm-Up Before Another Cold Front

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys, states like Iowa, Wisconsin, and parts of northern Illinois are forecasted to experience temperatures nearing the 60s Fahrenheit on Wednesday, February 18, and Thursday, February 19. Yet a significant drop in temperature is anticipated on Friday, February 20, as a cold front moves south from Canada. Minnesota is likely to feel the chill with temperatures dipping into the teens on that day, which will then spread southward.

Owen Shieh, a warning coordination meteorologist at NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, notes that late-winter temperature fluctuations are common; however, farmers should prepare in advance to avoid disruptions in their activities.

As the week progresses to February 23, colder temperatures are expected to linger, leading to below-freezing conditions across the Dakotas and significant parts of Minnesota. According to Roys, temperatures are projected to recover toward the middle of the following week, approaching the 40s and 50s Fahrenheit in southern Minnesota and several areas of Iowa and Wisconsin by February 25.

Scattered Storms Across the Midwest

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is forecasting several storm systems over the upcoming week. Shieh describes these storms as typical for late winter, predicting snowfall in the northern Midwest and rain to the south.

“Farmers across the Midwest will be affected by these storm patterns over the next 10 days, although not every storm will impact the entire region,” Roys explained.

Shieh mentioned that such temperature swings are not unusual during this time. With colder air setting in next week, the region may also see an Alberta Clipper-type storm bring a quick burst of snow; however, the timing remains uncertain.

Late-Winter Variability Unlikely to Derail Planting Season

Roys points out that this week’s storms are expected to ultimately benefit farmers by providing much-needed moisture to drought-stricken areas since November 2025. The combination of rising temperatures and melting snow cover is likely to increase soil moisture levels.

While snowpack and accumulation might continue in northern areas, further deep freezes are not anticipated, alleviating concerns about disruptions to farmers’ planting schedules in the lead-up to the planting season.

However, southern regions of Illinois and Missouri may experience increased instances of ice jam flooding—a typical phenomenon for early spring. While there is a risk of flooding causing planting delays, Roys remains optimistic that the ground will have sufficient time to thaw, suggesting that farmers can expect to start the growing season on schedule.