February USDA WASDE Report: Key Insights for Farmers

The eagerly awaited February USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is set to be released on February 10. Traditionally, this report is known for being relatively stable, providing crucial updates for farmers and stakeholders in the agricultural sector.

Overview of Current Market Conditions

Recent analyses indicate shifts in U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets, laying the groundwork for expectations leading into the February WASDE report. In January’s edition, corn ending stocks surged from 2.029 billion bushels to 2.227 billion. Meanwhile, soybean ending stocks rose from 290 million bushels to 350 million, and wheat ending stocks increased from 901 million to 926 million.

Corn Market Expectations

According to the January WASDE, the final production estimate for the 2025 corn crop was disclosed. Since then, export demand has shown significant strength. Data as of January 29 reveals that total corn export inspections are at 40.1% of the USDA’s current forecast, notably higher than the five-year average of 28% at this time. Additionally, export commitments as of January 15 indicate a pace that is 5.3% ahead of the five-year average.

The utilization of corn for ethanol production has also witnessed an uptick, with current marketing year’s usage trending above the USDA’s forecast of 5.6 billion bushels.

Grain Market Insider anticipates a decrease in ending stocks in the upcoming WASDE report, driven by stronger export figures and slightly increased ethanol production.

Soybean Market Outlook

Similar to corn, the January WASDE revealed the final production estimates for the 2025 soybean crop. However, soybean export shipments are currently sluggish, with only 51.3% of the USDA’s forecast shipped as of January 29, contrasting sharply with the five-year average of 66.9%. Export commitments have also dipped, reaching 71.5% of the current estimate by mid-January, compared to an 80.9% average historically.

In a positive shift, the USDA reported that 230 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in December, surpassing previous months and setting a new record for that month. This pace aligns closely with the USDA’s estimate of 2.555 billion bushels for the 2025/2026 marketing year.

Looking ahead, expectations for slightly lower exports coupled with higher crushing rates may leave soybean ending stocks near unchanged in the forthcoming report.

Considerations for the Wheat Market

The wheat market has showcased stable export rates for the 2025/2026 crop year. As of now, export inspections represent 68.1% of the current estimate, exceeding the five-year average of 61.4%. Moreover, export commitments have already reached 82.8% of the current estimate as of January 15, compared to the five-year average of 76.6%.

Grain Market Insider expects increased export demand in the February WASDE report, which could lead to a decrease in ending stocks.

Historical Trends and Market Reactions

An analysis based on data from 2000 to 2021 indicates that market volatility on February WASDE report day is typically below average for all three major crops: corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Specifically, the February report has a 59% probability of initiating a negative market reaction for corn, although it ranks second lowest in outright volatility, with an average price fluctuation of just 4 cents.

For soybeans, the likelihood of a market reaction—positive or negative—is at 50%, with an average change of 10 cents. Wheat maintains similar figures, also sitting at a 50% likelihood of market reactions but ranking as the least volatile with a 6-cent average change.

Conclusion

As the February WASDE report approaches, farmers and market participants should prepare for nuanced shifts in expectations for corn, soybeans, and wheat based on recent trends and historical data. Staying informed and adaptable will be essential in navigating the upcoming changes reported by the USDA.

Disclaimer

The information contained in this article is derived from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals using this information should consider their own financial situation, as commodity trading involves significant risks. The examples provided do not imply that similar occurrences are likely in the future.

About Grain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider, from Stewart-Peterson Inc., provides essential grain market commentary and analysis. For more insights and actionable advice, click here to subscribe and stay informed about your grain marketing decisions.

About the Author

Eric Fransen serves as the Director of TFM360 Market Analytics at Total Farm Marketing. With his extensive experience in market trends, Eric offers clients a calm and analytical approach to making informed marketing decisions.

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