Soybean and Grain Futures Lower in Overnight Trading

Soybean and grain futures dipped overnight as investors pivot their focus toward an exceptionally large Brazilian crop and a notable reduction in purchases from China.

According to the USDA, Brazil is projected to produce 178 million metric tons of soybeans during the 2025/2026 marketing year, marking a potential record high. With the Brazilian harvest already in full swing, the nation remains the top exporter of oilseeds and may secure additional business this month.

Shipping schedules released by exporter Anec indicate that Brazil could ship up to 14 million metric tons from January to February, a forecast reported by Reuters.

Another factor weighing on prices is the reduced buying activity from China, despite President Donald Trump’s recent discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where it was suggested that China would boost its purchases of U.S. soybeans from 12 million to 20 million metric tons. However, the USDA has yet to announce any significant soybean sales.

The only major export announcement by the USDA in the past week pertained to 130,480 metric tons of corn designated for an unnamed destination. Analysts express skepticism over whether China will significantly increase its U.S. soybean purchases given Brazil’s competitive pricing.

As a result, soybean futures for March delivery fell by 4½ cents, landing at $11.10¾ a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal saw a decrease of $4.30 to $299.30 per short ton, while soy oil futures rose by 0.98 cents to 56.31 cents per pound. Corn futures for March delivery dropped by 1¾ cents to $4.28½ per bushel. Wheat futures also fell, down 1½ cents to $5.28¼ per bushel, and Kansas City futures decreased by 3 cents to match the same figure.

Investors Increase Bullish Bets on Soybeans, CFTC Reports

Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals that speculators have ramped up their bullish bets on soybeans while simultaneously reducing their net short positions in corn. As of February 3, investors held a total of 29,153 net long positions in soybeans, significantly up from 19,794 contracts the week prior, marking the largest bullish position since January 6.

In contrast, money managers reported being net short by 80,613 contracts in corn futures, a slight reduction from 81,596 contracts the previous week—the lowest bearish position recorded since early January. Meanwhile, in the wheat market, large investors have also lessened their bearish bets, reducing their positions to 81,543 contracts from 94,047.

The weekly Commitment of Traders report provides insights into trader positions in futures markets, highlighting the differences between commercial traders, large speculators, and small speculators. A net long position signals a trend towards anticipating rising prices, while a net short position indicates a belief in future declines.

Red-Flag Warnings Issued for U.S. Southern Plains

Amid extremely dry conditions, the National Weather Service has issued red-flag warnings for parts of the U.S. southern plains and Nebraska. Forecasts predict sustained winds between 20-25 mph with gusts reaching up to 40 mph.

Relative humidity levels are expected to drop to as low as 7%, with temperatures climbing into the 70s. The combination of these factors creates a heightened risk for rapid fire growth and spread.

Warnings will take effect throughout the day in a wide area of Nebraska, where gusts may reach 30 mph and humidity could drop to around 14%, creating an environment conducive to wildfires.