The Future of Soybean Pricing Amid Market Shifts

NASHVILLE, TN – With the effective cessation of Chinese demand for soybeans, U.S. soybean farmers are grappling with a pressing question: Can increased domestic processing and vibrant export strategies help revitalize soybean prices? Recent data indicates potential opportunities ahead, albeit with a complex landscape.

Current Pricing and Market Overview

As we move through August 2025, soybean prices have stabilized at approximately $10.33 per bushel in the spot market, reflecting a minor increase from preceding weeks. The USDA’s season-average price forecast for the 2025/26 period remains unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. Farm-level prices have experienced a significant drop of nearly 12% compared to last year, with June averages holding at $10.40 per bushel, consistent with those from May.

Export Challenges Versus Domestic Progress

Export figures for the 2025/26 crop have reached a 20-year low, with current bookings representing a mere 3.9% of the targeted export goal. Analysts caution that this trend may continue unless new markets emerge rapidly. Conversely, there’s a silver lining: USDA reports indicate an all-time high in soybean processing, with an expected 2.54 billion bushels (accounting for 58% of total U.S. soybean disappearance) slated for crushing in the 2025/26 season. This surge is primarily driven by increasing demand for renewable diesel, with domestic usage of soybean oil for biofuels projected to reach 15.5 billion pounds—comprising an impressive 53% of total oil consumption.

Prospects for Price Recovery

Optimists hold that enhancements in processing capabilities and growing demand from markets in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and portions of South Asia and Africa could serve as catalysts for price recovery. According to USDA projections, renewed interest may commence lifting prices by the latter part of 2025, with potential strengthening effects visible in 2026–27 if export diversification strategies prove successful. However, some analysts maintain a more cautious stance, suggesting prices may remain under pressure into 2026 due to robust competition from Brazil and Argentina, coupled with weakened demand in the absence of Chinese buyers.

Conclusions for Soybean Growers

As soybean acreage reaches its lowest point since 2019 and export trends falter, the expansion of renewable diesel production and crushing capacity emerges as the most promising long-term support for U.S. soybean farmers. Diversifying into feed-intensive markets—especially in Southeast Asia and the expanding poultry industries in South Asia—could help bridge the gap left by China. While no single market can fully substitute for Chinese demand, a strategic blend of domestic processing and focused market development offers hope for stabilizing and eventually rebuilding soybean price levels over the coming 12 to 24 months.