Agricultural Market Update: Trends and Forecasts

1. Soybean Futures Rise Following Increased Chinese Purchases

Soybean futures experienced an uptick in overnight trading due to a recent confirmation by the USDA of additional purchases by China. The country has acquired 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year, set to conclude on August 31.

This announcement follows a significant sale of 336,000 metric tons to China earlier in the week, marking a substantial increase in trade activity. The surge in sales is attributed to a trade agreement signed by former Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which has prompted China to resume its importation of U.S. soybeans, after a period of sourcing from countries like Brazil and Argentina.

As a result of the rising demand, soybean futures for March delivery climbed by 5¢ to reach $10.66¼ per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Additionally, soy meal gained $1.30 to close at $304.90 per short ton, while soy oil saw an increase of 0.22¢, reaching 49.67¢ per pound.

2. Corn Sales Experience Significant Decline

In contrast to the strong soybean market, corn sales for overseas delivery fell to a marketing-year low during the week leading up to January 1, according to USDA reports. Total corn sales were recorded at 377,600 metric tons—down 49% from the previous week and a staggering 76% from the four-week average.

Key buyers included South Korea, which purchased 139,000 metric tons, followed by Japan with 108,100 tons. However, the week also saw cancellations from an unnamed country totaling 226,700 tons, which negatively impacted overall sales figures.

Meanwhile, soybean sales for the same week reached 877,900 metric tons, marking a 26% decline from the previous week and a 42% decrease from the four-week average. Notably, China was the largest buyer, with 470,100 tons acquired.

3. Weather Forecast: Winter Storms in Southern Plains

Winter storm warnings and weather advisories have been issued across parts of the southern Plains, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasts predict heavy snowfall in areas of Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, significantly impacting road conditions.

Snowfall totals are expected to reach between 4–8 inches in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, while winds are projected to gust up to 40 mph. Southwestern Kansas may see 1–3 inches of snow, creating hazardous conditions throughout the region.

Market Outlook

With fluctuating sales and shifting weather patterns, farmers and traders should remain vigilant. The return of Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans provides a positive note, while corn sales require close monitoring in the upcoming weeks as markets adjust to recent trends.