U.S. Rice Producers Brace for Price Declines Amid Tightening Supplies

NASHVILLE, TN – As the U.S. rice industry approaches 2026, producers are anticipating a decline in prices, even as supplies begin to tighten. Ryan Loy, an economist from the University of Arkansas, highlights the challenges that rice farmers will face in the coming years.

Acreage and Harvest Impacts

In 2025, U.S. rice acreage hit approximately 2.8 million acres, with around 2.7 million acres successfully harvested. Unfortunately, spring flooding in the Midsouth hindered plantings and affected overall yield. With long-grain ending stocks projected to be about 34.6 million bushels—similar to last year’s figures—the average farm price for rice is expected to drop significantly. Experts forecast a decrease to about $10.50 per hundredweight, down from approximately $14.00 the previous marketing year.

Global Market Dynamics

The current decline in pricing is linked to broader global market conditions. Worldwide rice production is anticipated to reach near-record levels, while demand continues to lag. This scenario marks the third consecutive year of surplus production. Moreover, increased exportable supplies from major producers, particularly India, are contributing to lower prices across international markets.

Competition in the Western Hemisphere

U.S. rice faces stiff competition in the Western Hemisphere, particularly from South American producers. Although a smaller crop from Mercosur countries may provide some support to maintain market share, Brazil’s high beginning stocks limit any substantial price increases. Notably, U.S. long-grain rice exports in the first half of the marketing year have already declined by 31 percent compared to the same period last year.

Conclusion

In summary, the current global surplus overwhelmingly outweighs the tightening supplies observed within the U.S. market. As a result, rice prices are under significant pressure, creating challenges for producers as they navigate a complex economic landscape.