US Corn Crop Report: Potential and Challenges

By Julie Ingwersen

Ohio’s Corn Crop Potential Shines

In a promising sign for U.S. agriculture, scouts participating in the annual Pro Farmer tour in eastern states report that Ohio’s corn crop is projecting its highest production capacity in at least 22 years. However, concerns about dry conditions may hinder yield output as the fall harvest approaches.

South Dakota’s Bountiful Yield

Conversely, South Dakota is experiencing favorable moisture conditions resulting in its corn yield potential being the highest since 2020, according to the tour scouts.

Market Implications

Grain traders are closely monitoring the four-day crop tour, which covers seven key U.S. corn and soybean states, to assess whether it aligns with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August 12 forecast, which anticipates a record-large corn crop.

Last week, the forecast prompted benchmark December corn futures (CZ25) on the Chicago Board of Trade to hit life-of-contract lows, although prices have since stabilized.

Ohio’s Impressive Projections

The corn yield projection for Ohio stands at an impressive 185.69 bushels per acre (bpa), surpassing both the tour’s 2024 average of 183.29 and the three-year average of 180.47 bpa. This figure also marks Ohio’s highest yield since records began in 2003, as noted by data analyst Emily Carolan.

Concerns Amidst Optimism

Despite these encouraging numbers, some experts express caution regarding the actualization of Ohio’s yield potential. Remarks from tour economist Lane Akre highlight that while the crop appears robust, signs of drying soils could pose a risk. “We observed cracks in the ground,” said Akre, stressing the need for additional rainfall to ensure the crop’s success.

Ohio’s Soybean Pod Count

Although the tour does not calculate soybean yields, estimates indicate that the average number of soybean pods in a three-by-three-foot square in Ohio has risen to 1,287.28 pods, an improvement from last year’s average of 1,229.93 pods.

South Dakota’s Positive Outlook

For South Dakota, the anticipated corn yield is projected at 174.18 bpa, benefiting from substantial moisture, marking a significant increase from last year’s 156.51 bpa and the three-year average of 144.13 bpa. This is the highest yield estimate for the state since 2020.

Moisture Supporting Development

The tour also reported an average soybean pod count in South Dakota of 1,188.45 pods per three-by-three-foot square, which exceeds last year’s average and is the highest since 2020. Scouts noted muddy conditions in several fields, an indicator of moisture that should aid in cultivating corn and soybeans as they near harvest. Analyst Sherman Newlin voiced optimism, indicating, “That moisture will carry the crop a long way.”

(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen in Grand Island, Nebraska; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Rashmi Aich)