European soybean production is expected to decline by around 20% in 2026, with output across the EU forecast to reach just 2.4 million tonnes, according to a new market report from Donau Soja.
The decline follows widespread heat and drought across much of the continent, which pushed the average EU soybean yield down to 2.24 tonnes per hectare, around 15% below the five-year average.
The downturn is particularly evident in major producing countries. Italy, the EU’s largest soybean producer, is expected to harvest 900,000 tonnes, while Austrian production is forecast to drop by 36% to 180,000 tonnes.
Ukraine output also declines
The weaker harvest extends beyond the EU.
Ukraine, one of Europe’s most important suppliers of non-GM soya, is expected to produce 4.4 million tonnes in 2026, around 10% less than last year.
Export figures already point to a tighter market. Ukraine shipped only 27,000 tonnes of soybeans in September, roughly one-third of the volume exported during the same month a year earlier.
Import dependence grows
With domestic production under pressure, Europe is expected to become even more reliant on imported protein.
According to Donau Soja, the EU’s soya self-sufficiency ratio is forecast to decline from around 8% in 2025/26 to approximately 6% in 2026/27, leaving the bloc increasingly exposed to global supply disruptions.
“With only 8% self-sufficiency in soya, Europe has a clear vulnerability and significant potential to increase production,” said Aurélie Tournan, general manager of Donau Soja.
She argued that expanding European-grown protein crops and strengthening regional supply chains would improve resilience and food security.
Poland and Germany buck the trend
Despite the wider downturn, a handful of countries are expanding production.
Poland is expected to become the EU’s third-largest soybean producer in 2026, increasing output by more than 15% to 264,000 tonnes, while Germany is forecast to raise production by 2.4% to 134,000 tonnes.
Donau Soja said these gains demonstrate the potential for further growth in European soybean production, even as much of the continent grapples with increasingly challenging weather conditions.
