The Impact of Hybrid Warfare on European Manufacturing

As Russia’s conflict with Ukraine persists, the Kremlin is intensifying its hybrid warfare tactics, extending the battlefield to Europe and beyond. This unconventional form of warfare, often characterized by “grey zone” attacks, poses significant risks and disruptions for both citizens and businesses. This article explores how these tactics are influencing manufacturing in the region and the strategies companies are employing to navigate these escalating threats.

Preparedness Through Diversification

Manufacturers that prioritize preparedness are actively diversifying their operations. This involves systematically mapping their supply chains to pinpoint critical suppliers that may be vulnerable to hybrid threats based on their geographical location, customer demographics, or digital exposure.

To mitigate risks, many firms are proactively qualifying and onboarding alternative suppliers, enabling a quick substitution of key partners if they come under attack. Companies are also considering enhancing their contracts with suppliers to include flexible clauses that allow for renegotiation amid disruptions caused by hybrid warfare. Additionally, some manufacturers conduct regular trial orders with backup suppliers who can meet quality and delivery expectations, ensuring they are ready for any potential fallout.

Moreover, firms are evaluating the benefits of stockpiling critical components. By maintaining safety stocks in secure locations—including fulfillment centers, local warehouses, or third-party facilities—production can continue uninterrupted even if a primary supplier is compromised or logistics routes are hindered. However, this approach requires careful balancing against the added costs of storage and the risk of obsolescence.

Adapting Logistics Strategies

On the logistics front, innovative manufacturers are striving to avoid reliance on a single transport corridor or mode. They achieve this by securing multiple shipping, rail, or air routes for market access and dispersing inventory across more secure regional warehouses or logistics hubs.

Investing in real-time shipment tracking technologies and embracing digital tools, such as artificial intelligence, enhances supply chain visibility and facilitates rapid responses to disruptions. Scenario planning, along with live exercises that simulate the loss of access to particular suppliers or transportation routes, enables teams to practice swift re-routing and refine their contingency plans. Maintaining regular communication with logistics providers, local industry groups, and government authorities strengthens preparedness and enhances early detection of hybrid threats.

Communications and Digital Vulnerabilities

The manufacturing sector faces significant risks due to its heavy reliance on operational technology (OT) and digital infrastructure, intricately linking daily operations with both cyber and physical threats. The rising digitization of industrial technology means that cyberattacks can lead to severe physical and operational interruptions.

For instance, manufacturers typically depend on computer-aided design (CAD) files to facilitate production. In the event of a ransomware attack, these vital files could be rendered unusable, resulting in widespread supply chain interruptions. The unique operating systems often used in OT environments complicate the deployment of essential security and monitoring tools, leaving many systems outdated and vulnerable.

Transport networks are equally at risk. In Europe, chronic underinvestment in the digital systems that support telecommunications and transport infrastructure has exposed critical nodes. Compounded by insufficient civil-military cybersecurity coordination, infrastructure known to be targeted by adversarial actors remains largely governed by civilian digital architecture, making ports and railway systems increasingly vulnerable.

In recent years, most NATO members have reported cyberattacks on port infrastructure, with access control and vessel traffic management technologies being especially susceptible. Similarly, European rail companies have encountered various cyber incidents attributed to Russian actors, leading to disruptions in signaling systems and severe delays in commercial operations.

A Call for Resilience

The current geopolitical climate has rendered it virtually impossible for manufacturers and numerous other industries to operate under the same guidelines that prevailed a decade ago. Industry leaders must stay vigilant to early warning signs—such as large-scale misinformation campaigns, increased cyberattacks, vandalism, and disruptions to critical infrastructure—indicating that stability could threaten production and supply continuity. Building a resilient framework is not just preferable; it is essential.

Richard Gardiner is a Senior Analyst on the Strategic Intelligence team at the cybersecurity and corporate intelligence firm S-RM.