U.S. Import Projections Amid Ongoing Tariff Uncertainties
According to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, imports at major U.S. container ports are anticipated to remain below last year’s levels for the first half of 2026 due to ongoing tariff uncertainties. The report also highlights that it is still early to assess the conflict in Iran’s impact on trade.
Tariff Uncertainties Persist
“The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down IEEPA tariffs has left retailers in a state of confusion,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “With new tariffs announced and additional ones on the horizon, the need for a clear trade policy becomes ever more critical. Retailers and other businesses face challenges in long-term planning.”
The recent Supreme Court ruling against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act has led President Donald Trump to announce a temporary 10 percent tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This tariff could rise to 15 percent, with new Section 301 trade investigations also being contemplated by the administration.
Gold remarked, “While holding trading partners accountable is essential and there’s a push for more domestic manufacturing, we must recognize that tariffs consequently increase costs for businesses and consumers alike. They should be applied judiciously.” He also indicated close monitoring of the situation in Iran and its potential repercussions on retail supply chains.
Impact of the Iran Conflict
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that it’s still too early to determine the effects of the recent conflict in Iran on U.S. container imports. “Little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from that region, so the immediate impact on containerized traffic is not expected to be significant,” he stated. However, he cautioned that rising oil and gasoline prices could lead to structural inflation if the conflict continues, potentially squeezing consumer spending and manufacturing, which could ultimately lead to reduced import volumes in the long term.
Current Import Statistics
In January, U.S. ports monitored by Global Port Tracker received 2.08 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), an increase of 3.8 percent from December but a 6.4 percent decrease year over year. Notably, the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have not yet submitted their January data.
Future Projections
The Global Port Tracker forecasts for the first half of 2026 indicate a total of 12.21 million TEU, a decline of 2.5 percent compared to 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. Key monthly projections are as follows:
- February: 2.01 million TEU (down 1.3% year-over-year)
- March: 1.91 million TEU (down 11.2%)
- April: 2.03 million TEU (down 8.1%)
- May: 2.09 million TEU (up 7%)
- June: 2.1 million TEU (up 6.8%)
- July: 2.2 million TEU (down 8%)
The year 2025 saw total imports of 25.4 million TEU, reflecting a slight decline of 0.3 percent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024. The anticipated increases in May and June are largely attributed to decreases in import levels during the previous year following the announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025.
Global Port Tracker continues to monitor and provide forecasts for U.S. ports including major hubs such as Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, New York/New Jersey, and Houston.
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