2025 Outlook for Global Poultry Markets: A Balancing Act Amidst Challenges

The global poultry industry is facing a transformative year as geopolitical tensions and outbreaks of avian influenza pose significant challenges. Recent insights from RaboResearch indicate that the strength of poultry markets, while promising, is contingent upon navigating these turbulent waters.

A Robust Start in 2025

The poultry trade experienced robust growth in the first quarter of 2025, achieving record highs. However, the optimism is shadowed by rising challenges, particularly avian influenza outbreaks that have emerged in major producer countries. Countries have begun imposing restrictions, with Brazil facing substantial setbacks due to blocked exports amid its ongoing avian flu crisis.

Impact of Avian Influenza

Avian influenza outbreaks have become a critical concern globally, affecting production and trade dynamics. The waves of infection that swept through the US, EU, and Brazil have resulted in soaring prices and supply shortages. Central Europe has been notably impacted, with Poland, Hungary, and northern Italy recording significant cases, while Brazil’s critical role as a poultry exporter is being threatened.

In the US, egg prices have reached unprecedented highs, and Europe is grappling with tight markets for hatching eggs, delaying the recovery process. This situation exacerbates market tensions and raises serious questions about the industry’s recovery capabilities in the near future.

Trade Tensions and Market Uncertainty

Regions like China, Southeast Asia, and Africa are experiencing heightened trade tensions exacerbated by tariffs. These tariffs could lead to significant repercussions for local poultry markets, complicating the trade landscape. Nan-Dirk Mulder, a senior analyst at RaboResearch, highlights the dual threat posed by US import tariffs on seafood, which could indirectly impact local poultry supply chains in Southeast Asia.

Additionally, geopolitical conflicts, especially the ongoing Israel-Iran tensions, further add uncertainty to market stability. The future of US-China trade relations could either lead to escalating tariffs or new agreements, each carrying profound implications for the poultry industry globally.

The Role of Geopolitics and Industry Dynamics

Despite these uncertainties, the fundamentals for poultry markets remain solid, driven by steady feed costs and a projected stable demand. The Middle East, accounting for approximately 20% of global poultry trade, remains a key region where geopolitical tensions could drastically alter trade flows. Any escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict could lead to serious disruptions, impacting global poultry markets and economies beyond the sector.

Conclusion

As we move further into 2025, the global poultry market is positioned amidst both challenges and opportunities. While demand stays strong, the industry’s resilience will be tested by avian influenza and geopolitical dynamics. The next steps taken by stakeholders in navigating these issues will ultimately shape the future of global poultry trade.