3 Big Things Today, Jan. 2, 2026

1. Low Volume Expected in Markets

As the markets reopen, many commodities remain closed early Friday morning. Karl Setzer, a partner at Consus Ag Consulting, noted, “Markets start out with a firm open [Friday] morning for a full session which will likely be extremely low volume.” Traders have shored up their positions ahead of the holidays, making it unlikely many will return for a single day to establish new positions. Some may even wait until the January WASDE report on the 12th before reassessing their strategies.

In terms of closing figures, March corn was down ¼¢ at $4.40¼ per bushel, while March soybeans dropped 14¾¢, settling at $10.47½ per bushel. Additionally, March soymeal decreased by $2.90, coming in at $299.40 a short ton, and March soybean oil fell 0.88¢ to 48.56¢ a pound.

The wheat market also faced declines, with CBOT wheat decreasing by 3¾¢ to $5.07 per bushel. KC wheat fell 7¼¢, closing at $5.14¾ per bushel, and Minneapolis wheat experienced a drop of 4¢, ending at $5.60 per bushel.

2. ICYMI: China Imposes Beef Import Tariffs

In another significant development, China has decided to impose a 55% tariff on beef imports that exceed quota levels from major suppliers including Brazil, Australia, and the U.S. This decision reflects concerns about how increased beef imports could adversely impact China’s domestic livestock industry.

According to the announcement from China’s commerce ministry, the total import quota for 2026 for the countries under the newly established “safeguard measures” is set at 2.7 million metric tons. This figure aligns closely with the record 2.87 million tons imported overall in 2024.

Notably, the new annual quota levels are lower than the import figures recorded for Brazil and Australia during the first 11 months of 2025. The ministry indicated, “The increase in the amount of imported beef has seriously damaged China’s domestic industry,” leading to the implementation of these measures following an investigation launched last December.

3. Above Average Weather Conditions and Active Lake Effect Snows

Weather patterns are set to shift, with the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center forecasting above-average conditions across the Plains. An upper-ridge is expected to move east in the upcoming days, bringing forecast highs in the 50s and 60s for areas in the High Plains, central Plains, and Southeast. Conversely, parts of the Midwest will experience colder temperatures, remaining below average.

The NWS also reported ongoing active lake effect snows for regions near the Great Lakes, particularly downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie. Locally, accumulations could exceed a foot of snow east of Lake Ontario due to a persistent cold, westerly flow over the lakes.

In a related forecast, a slowly moving upper-trough approaching the West Coast is expected to channel Pacific moisture into California, potentially leading to another Atmospheric River event over the weekend.