1. Corn Futures Lower, Soybeans Higher Overnight

Corn futures experienced a decline, while soybean prices showed modest gains as market participants closely monitor geopolitical tensions and export data.

Recent threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin to close Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea have raised concerns about agricultural shipments. Two Ukrainian naval drones attacked Russian tankers, potentially disrupting the flow of corn and wheat from key Ukrainian ports, particularly Odesa.

Wheat futures remained relatively stable, buoyed by concerns about these geopolitical events. However, expectations of increased wheat production in Australia may temper price fluctuations. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) projects that wheat production will rise to 35.6 million metric tons in the 2025-2026 marketing year, significantly higher than previous forecasts.

Soybean prices enjoyed an uptick amid speculation that China will fulfill its commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans from U.S. suppliers. Traders report that state-owned importers in China plan to increase their purchases as part of an agreement reached with the U.S. last October, which also includes further commitments over the next three years.

As of the Chicago Board of Trade, March corn futures dropped 2.5 cents to $4.47.5 per bushel, while wheat futures fell by 1 cent to $5.39. Soybean futures for January gained 2.5 cents, reaching $11.27.25 per bushel.

2. Speculators Cut Corn Net Shorts Through Oct. 21

Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals that investors have reduced their bearish positions on corn while increasing their bullish bets on soybeans. In the week ending October 21, speculators held a net-short position in corn of 159,272 contracts, down from 187,992 the previous week.

Conversely, money managers held a net-long position in soybeans, totaling 34,793 contracts—up significantly from just 2,626 contracts the week prior. This represents the largest bullish position in soybeans since mid-June, according to CFTC data.

In the wheat market, hedge funds and large investment firms reported a net-short position of 107,377 contracts, a slight decrease from the previous week’s 110,883 contracts.

3. Snow Forecast for Parts of the Southern Plains

Weather updates indicate that snow is expected in certain areas of the Southern Plains where hard-red winter wheat is overwintering. The National Weather Service forecasts accumulations of one inch or more in the western panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas, with some eastern areas possibly experiencing measurable snowfall.

Snowfall is expected to continue with lingering flurries through Thursday morning before drier weather arrives for the weekend. Meanwhile, southern Missouri has been placed under freezing fog advisories, which may create hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility and slick roads.