Reimagining Agriculture: Building an Antifragile Future
Christine R. Gould is the founder and CEO at GIGA Futures, which works with food and ag companies on strategy, partnerships, and market positioning.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of AgFunderNews.
The Frustration Within Ag Biotech
While enjoying a drink at Davos, a respected ag biotech founder expressed their disillusionment, stating, “This industry is dead. I’m out.” Their recent experience at the J.P. Morgan Biotech conference highlighted a stark contrast between entrepreneurship in other sectors and agriculture. They lamented, “In other parts of biotech, founders get money to grow. They build teams. They actually get to build their product.” In ag biotech, however, talent feels underserved, with many struggling to secure meaningful investment or clear pathways to scale.
After a decade collaborating with innovative entrepreneurs in this field, it’s evident that many are reevaluating their ambitions. The current investment landscape doesn’t align with their vision, causing frustration and fatigue as they navigate a system that seems resistant to change.
A Culture of Resignation
In agriculture and food sectors, established companies dominate, controlling distribution channels, regulatory frameworks, and customer relations. For startups, scaling often necessitates navigating this complex maze, forcing them to align with the status quo. Instead of fostering innovation, corporations frequently prioritize risk aversion, stunting potential breakthroughs.
The Ag Playbook from Leaps by Bayer exemplifies this mindset. Intended to guide startups through the complicated market terrain of biological inputs, it unfortunately emphasizes adherence to existing frameworks rather than pioneering new paths. Insightful yet restrictive, it communicates a clear message: “This is our game, so follow our rules.”
As one startup candidly stated, their only realistic path often leads to acquisition by a larger company, inevitably slowing or stifling innovation. This resignation stifles creativity and leads to a climate of complacency rather than a culture of innovation.
The Funding Conundrum
The investment landscape reflects similar challenges. FMC’s decision to shutter its venture arm in early 2025 indicated a broader trend among corporates returning to their traditional business cores, thereby constraining the flow of risk capital necessary for disruptive innovation. Generalist VC firms, skittish about investing in ag tech, have subsequently gravitated towards safer, more established opportunities, further stifling the sector.
Policy and Government Inaction
Even governmental initiatives fail to address the investment gap. At a recent UN food-systems gathering in Addis Ababa, I observed a lack of engagement from investors, despite meticulous planning to connect innovative startups with potential backers. The alarming disconnect between government discourse about urgency and the reality of their inaction hinders genuine progress in fostering innovation.
Farmers’ Role in the System
Farmers, too, play a part in perpetuating this cycle. Confronted with tight margins and fluctuating prices, they tend to prioritize immediate cost-cutting solutions over long-term resilience. This behavior sends ripples upwards in the supply chain, reinforcing a system that favors short-term gains over sustainable growth.
Envisioning a Future of Antifragility
Drawing from my background in security and defense economics, it’s clear that effective systems need to be designed to withstand uncertainty. Agriculture, however, often operates under outdated assumptions, clinging to conventional models that are increasingly precarious in light of current global challenges.
A true commitment to fostering antifragility in agriculture would require systemic changes, centering investments on:
- Engines of New Growth: Shift focus from merely improving existing efficiencies to exploring diverse revenue lines in less conventional crops and markets.
- Diverse Portfolios: Transition from singular product-focused strategies to portfolios that offer varied solutions accommodating different risk levels.
- Scaling Infrastructure: Instead of perpetually iterative pilots, invest in robust collaborative networks to facilitate broader adoption and scaling of solutions.
- Recycling Innovation: Establish circular systems that reintegrate insights and resources from unsuccessful projects to cultivate future innovations.
Learning from Other Industries
While agriculture may lag, other sectors have successfully implemented structural changes to nurture disruptive growth. Companies like AB InBev’s ZX Ventures and Amazon Web Services exemplify the advantages of fostering separate innovation engines that prioritize bold exploration and growth.
Shifting the Narrative
To truly advance antifragile agriculture, it’s imperative to shift the focus of accolades and recognition to emphasize courage and risk-taking. Instead of merely celebrating substantial funding rounds or established partnerships, we should champion stories of collaboration and innovation that redefine the sector’s trajectory.
Actionable Choices Ahead
The pivotal question remains: will we choose to strengthen our systems or allow them to become brittle? To progress toward a proactive, resilient future requires concerted efforts—from boards to executives to investors—to pioneer sustainable growth strategies.
If you see your organization in this narrative, trapped in old paradigms while professing a desire for transformation, it’s time to initiate change. Choose one area to begin restructuring towards a more resilient, antifragile agricultural framework, and let’s start making it a reality.
