Trade agreements often sound sophisticated when announced from political platforms, filled with terms like “market access” and “strategic partnership”. The recent Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) between Prabowo Subianto of Indonesia and Donald Trump promises broader markets and deeper economic ties between Indonesia and the United States. However, while this may seem advantageous from a diplomatic viewpoint, for Indonesia’s livestock farmers, it may represent a growing concern.
One of the Largest Poultry Industries in Asia
Indonesia boasts a staggering poultry industry, currently home to approximately 3.92 billion chickens, with around 3.32 billion being broilers and over 426 million layer hens. This enormous sector produces millions of tonnes of meat annually, with about 3.8 million tonnes of broiler meat recorded in 2024. Major production centers include West Java, Central Java, and East Java.
Moreover, the layer sector has experienced unprecedented growth, achieving a national eggs production of 6.31 million tonnes in 2025—the highest in two decades. Clearly, Indonesia is not a nascent poultry market waiting to be filled; it is a powerhouse that’s on the brink of wider competition through ART.
Fair Trade?
The arrival of imported poultry products, especially chicken cuts from the US, raises concerns among independent poultry farmers. Competing against an efficient US poultry system, which leverages economies of scale, places local farmers at a distinct disadvantage. It’s akin to a traditional bicycle race where one participant replaces their bicycle with a high-speed train.
This situation highlights an underlying tension: while Indonesia’s poultry industry demonstrates a remarkable capacity for growth, it lacks market stability crucial for enduring competition.
Poultry Market Imbalance and the Fate of Local Players
For years, the imbalance between poultry supply and demand has plagued farmers, pushing live bird prices below production costs and endangering livelihoods. When introducing imported products into this already fragile market, the risks deepen. If imported goods are significantly cheaper, food processors may pivot towards these inputs, disregarding local farmers’ well-being.
Another layer of complexity lies in the genetic foundation of the poultry industry. Although large-scale, Indonesia’s poultry genetics heavily depend on imported breeding stock, particularly grandparent stock, which influences the entire supply chain. The paradox is stark: while seeking self-sufficiency in animal protein, Indonesia’s poultry genetics remain reliant on imports.
Another Chapter in the Broader Livestock Story
The difficulties faced in the cattle and dairy sectors echo similar structural inefficiencies that make domestic producers vulnerable to imported goods. As such, sweeping trade agreements prompt critical questions about balancing international trade with domestic resilience.
While larger integrated companies may adapt to market shifts due to their scale, resources, and supply chain efficiency, small farmers remain at the mercy of market fluctuations. For them, livestock farming translates into real-life struggles and daily concerns—feed costs, electricity bills, and volatile pricing for live birds.
Will There Be a Sobering Realization?
While agreements like ART can enhance international cooperation, they risk exposing domestic farmers to competition that may far exceed their capacity to adapt quickly. Indonesia’s livestock industry is not against globalization; it fears the unpreparedness that could accompany it.
As Indonesia’s chicken population continues to multiply, farmers remain devoted. However, as imports flow in, the market they once dominated might shift, giving rise to a daunting realization: the chickens may still belong to Indonesian farmers, but control over the market could slip away. The challenge lies in ensuring that growth is accompanied by stability, allowing local players to thrive amid global competition.
