As U.S. farmers prepare for the 2026 growing season, they are grappling with tariff uncertainties that complicate crop input purchases. During the Illinois Fertilizer & Chemical Association convention held in Peoria, Illinois from January 21-23, a panel of agricultural experts discussed the various challenges growers face, including the tough decision to forego crop protection due to rising costs and concerns over market access.

According to Daren Coppock, CEO and president of the Agricultural Retailers Association, many farmers are leaving crops unharvested due to a lack of buyers or existing markets. Reports have surfaced of cotton farmers considering abandoning their fields and soybean crops being left in Iowa.

Coppock pointed out that the U.S. lost its leading export position to China for soybeans during the first Trump administration, and in the past year, the market has diminished significantly.

Farmers are finding themselves hesitating to invest in crop protection for the upcoming season. Alexandra Dunn, CEO of CropLife America, emphasized the hesitation among growers: “Are you going to apply crop protection on a crop that is essentially not going to turn a profit? If that soybean crop is not going to yield value, a grower may choose not to invest at all.”

Hope for the Fertilizer Market Amid Tariff Rollbacks

Despite these challenges, there is potential for growth in the fertilizer market due to expected policy changes and a strong crop production outlook for 2026. Fertilizer prices saw a rise in 2025, but recent adjustments could bring relief to growers.

Last November, the Trump administration rolled back tariffs on various fertilizers including urea and ammonium sulfate through an executive order. Alexis Maxwell, a senior equity analyst at Green Markets, noted the new tariff environment as favorable: “Effectively, all fertilizers—except for ammonia—are exempt from tariffs. This provides a clearer picture as we approach the spring season.”

Moreover, many farmers will need to replenish soil nutrients after an unexpectedly strong production year. The USDA forecasts that the expected corn harvest could reach a record 17 billion bushels in 2025, prompting a significant drop in corn futures.

Maxwell added, “With the large corn crop coming off this year, replenishing nutrients is essential. We are facing a backlog of demand heading into spring. It is advantageous to have certainty regarding the tariff situation for fertilizer imports, allowing us to respond appropriately to market signals.”