Agricultural Update: Trends in Soybeans, Ethanol Production, and Weather Forecast

Soybean and Grain Futures Experience Positive Uptick

In a recent report, soybean and grain futures showed a significant increase, driven by strong demand for U.S. agricultural products. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) highlighted an unnamed country’s purchase of 230,560 metric tons of corn for delivery within the current marketing year, illustrating robust international demand.

Furthermore, China has agreed to buy 264,000 metric tons of soybeans. This marks a notable increase as it is the first large purchase by China since recent commitments made by President Trump—who announced an additional purchase of 8 million metric tons from the U.S. on top of an existing agreement for 12 million metric tons.

Export data as of the beginning of the 2025/2026 marketing year, which commenced on September 1, indicates corn exports have surged by 49%, totaling 33.2 million metric tons. Wheat exports have also seen a significant rise, currently standing at 16.6 million metric tons—up 21% year-over-year. However, soybean shipments have decreased by 36%, attributed to China pausing its purchases of U.S. soybeans until this October.

Despite the decline in soybean shipments, the prospect of increased Chinese purchases continues to support market confidence. For March delivery, soybean futures rose by 12¾ cents to settle at $11.36¾ a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Additionally, soy meal prices climbed $5.10 to $308.10 per short ton, while soy oil futures gained 0.42 cents, reaching 57.47 cents per pound.

Corn futures experienced an uptick as well, rising 1¼ cents to $4.28¾ a bushel, and wheat prices also improved, gaining 2¾ cents to reach $5.40 a bushel. Kansas City wheat futures climbed 4 cents, settling at $5.42½ a bushel.

Ethanol Production and Stockpiles Reported on the Rise

The latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a notable increase in ethanol production and stockpiles for the week ending February 6. The average output surged to 1.11 million barrels per day, a significant rise from 956,000 barrels per day the previous week.

In the Midwest, the primary ethanol-producing region, output averaged 1.053 million barrels per day, up from 902,000 barrels the prior week. Other regions reported modest increases as well, with Gulf Coast production growing to 26,000 barrels and East Coast output rising by a thousand barrels to average 11,000. The West Coast also noted an increase to 10,000 barrels.

However, Rocky Mountain producers maintained a steady output of 11,000 barrels per day. Overall, ethanol inventories increased from 25.136 million barrels to 25.247 million barrels.

Weather Update: Dry Conditions Give Way to Rain in Parts of Kansas

According to the National Weather Service, weather patterns remain calm this morning, although parts of southern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks are experiencing dry conditions. These areas are expected to face elevated fire weather risks due to warm and dry air mass combined with southerly winds.

Rain is anticipated to begin tomorrow evening and will continue through Sunday morning, potentially bringing isolated lightning with it. Farmers in the region are advised to prepare for changing weather conditions as moisture returns.