USDA December WASDE Report: Market Expectations for Corn, Soybean, and Wheat

The USDA is set to release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday, December 9, which historically focuses on demand rather than production adjustments. This report is critical for farmers and industry analysts as they navigate the intricate dynamics of the corn, soybean, and wheat markets.

Corn Market Projections

Despite the ongoing government shutdown impacting the release of timely export data, recent inspection reports provide insight into corn export demands. As of December 1, total inspections reached 24.3% of the USDA’s current forecast, significantly higher than the five-year average of 14.1% at this time of year.

In the 2025/2026 crop year, corn usage for ethanol production has shown a robust pattern over the past several weeks, aligning closely with the USDA’s estimate of 5.6 billion bushels for the marketing year.

Looking ahead, Grain Market Insider anticipates a potential increase in export demand, which could lead to a decrease in feed estimates. Ending stocks may remain steady or slightly lower, based on the current trends.

Soybean Market Insights

The export momentum for soybeans has remained sluggish. Reports indicate only 26.7% of the USDA’s export forecast was achieved as of November 14, starkly contrasting the five-year average of 39.6%.

The USDA did not publish an October crush report; however, a record-breaking figure of 227.647 million bushels crushed was reported by the National Oilseed Processors Association, reflecting a 14% increase compared to the previous year and indicating strong processing capabilities in the U.S.

For the upcoming WASDE report, projections suggest a potential increase in soybean crush and a decrease in exports, resulting in ending stocks that remain unchanged.

Wheat Market Considerations

Since early July, wheat exports have exhibited firm demand, with recent inspection reports reflecting 54% of the current estimate, surpassing the five-year average of 47.8%. This positive trend may lead to an expected increase in export demand in the December WASDE report, which could further reduce ending stocks.

Statistical Trends and Historical Perspectives

Analysis of data from 2000 to 2023 indicates that the volatility associated with the December WASDE report typically remains below average for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The likelihood of a positive market reaction for corn this December stands at 59%, yielding a relatively low average absolute price change of just 3¢.

For soybeans, the likelihood of an impactful market reaction is 50%, with average price movements showing mixed potential. Wheat may see a more negative reaction, with 68% likelihood, although it too ranks among the less volatile reports, averaging an 8¢ price change.

Disclaimer: The information presented herein is drawn from trusted sources but is not guaranteed. Individuals must act at their own risk when making trading decisions. Commodity trading involves considerable risk and may not suit every individual. Carefully assess the suitability of trading in light of personal financial conditions.

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About the Author

Eric Fransen serves as the Director of TFM360 Market Analytics at Total Farm Marketing, where his analytical approach has provided farmers with clear guidance for navigating fluctuating market conditions since 2007. His expertise lies in simplifying complex concepts for better decision-making in agricultural marketing.

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