China’s Soybean Purchases: Current Trends and Future Outlook

By Ryan Hanrahan

Bloomberg’s Hallie Gu and Chris Anstey reported that “China is on pace to meet its pledge to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of February,” stated US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during an interview. This announcement comes as a welcomed indication, extending a previously perceived deadline for Beijing’s purchases.

The White House had previously indicated that China agreed to fulfill these shipments “during the last two months of 2025.” Bessent expressed confidence in the deal’s completion, stating, “I will say that China is on track to keep every part of the deal, every part of the deal.”

Upon being asked about the pace of these soybean purchases, Bessent clarified that the crucial target is “the end of the season, so I think that’ll be Feb. 28,” coinciding with the marketing year for US soybeans which runs from September to August. He affirmed, “They are in a perfect cadence to complete that goal.”

More Soybean Shipments Loading for China

In related news, Reuters’ Karl Plume reported that “shipments of U.S. crops to China are accelerating” after previous tensions disrupted trade. At least six bulk cargo vessels are set to load soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December.

A notable seventh U.S. soybean cargo recently loaded and is already en route to China, marking the first shipment since May. These cargoes represent the first physical deliveries of U.S. soybeans purchased by China following pivotal trade discussions between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in late October 2025.

Furthermore, this rejuvenated flow of shipments offers some reassurance to traders concerned that reported purchases could be canceled or redirected to Brazil, where prices are considerably lower. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed approximately 2.25 million tons of Chinese purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year, although analysts believe actual sales may be closer to 3 or 4 million tons.

Despite these developments, overall purchases remain significantly lower than pre-trade war volumes, leading to a marked decrease in soybean futures prices, which have plummeted to near five-year lows.

Economists Express Doubts Over China Meeting Soybean Commitments

In light of this promising outlook, skepticism remains among economists about whether China will meet its soybean purchase pledge. AgWeb’s Tyne Morgan reported that while U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and the White House affirm China’s commitment, a recent Farm Journal survey indicates that 76% of economists doubt that China will meet the full 12 million metric tons purchase this year.

Chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman suggests that the market now anticipates a revised expectation, estimating that China may take between 8 to 10 million metric tons throughout the marketing year ending in August.

China Soybean Buying Deadline Now February, Bessent Says was initially published by Farmdoc.